WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

126.08 – 90.82

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.2 ±11.7

8802Milwaukee United

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 30.06Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 16.07Rank 29Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 79.95Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168.3 ±12.1

8531TermiKnightors

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 12.83Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2077Laser Robotics

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 27.88Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 50.11Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8802, 5586, 2062

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8802, 5586, 2062

Auto

33.3 26%

Teleop

53.0 42%

Endgame

40.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8531, 2077, 5148

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8531, 2077, 5148

Auto

21.6 28%

Teleop

39.9 51%

Endgame

16.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.1pts

Blue projected score90.8pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.3
Score range: 64–153
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 149.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252.2Season APEX168.3

33.3Auto21.6

53Teleop39.9

40Endgame16.4

13Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	21
teleop	59	61
endgame	66	18
foul	0	0
total	144	100

Result

Final score

144 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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