WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.73 – 232.11

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

143 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.6 ±12.2

10287Kingdom Prep RC

Season APEX 48.9Event APEX 12.87Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 64.15Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3596Rocket Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 16.71Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 417.7 ±10.5

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 27.61Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9760Cristo Rey Jesuit Trailblazers

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 45.97Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 158.53Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10287, 4531, 3596

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10287, 4531, 3596

Auto

16.1 20%

Teleop

47.9 60%

Endgame

16.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8701, 9760, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8701, 9760, 1732

Auto

58.3 25%

Teleop

120.6 51%

Endgame

55.6 24%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93.7pts

Blue projected score232.1pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -138.4
Score range: 67–259
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 377 vs event baseline 148.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.6Season APEX417.7

16.1Auto58.3

47.9Teleop120.6

16.1Endgame55.6

60Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	60
teleop	54	132
endgame	41	42
foul	15	0
total	143	234

Result

Final score

143 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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