WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

177.76 – 201.92

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

151 – 239

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.5 ±11.2

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 46.44Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3692Rock N' Robotics

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 18.57Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 112.75Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.4 ±11.2

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 32.15Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 25.14Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 144.63Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10553, 3692, 93

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10553, 3692, 93

Auto

22.3 13%

Teleop

105.3 60%

Endgame

48.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2830, 5096, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2830, 5096, 1714

Auto

36.1 18%

Teleop

106.8 54%

Endgame

54.3 28%

Strengths

· 1714 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score177.8pts

Blue projected score201.9pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.2
Score range: 151–229
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 147.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.5Season APEX345.4

22.3Auto36.1

105.3Teleop106.8

48.8Endgame54.3

77Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	52
teleop	39	119
endgame	61	68
foul	10	0
total	151	239

Result

Final score

151 – 239

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.