WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.81 – 130.56

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

72 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 16.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 159.2 ±13.9

6166Thorobotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 19.39Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 46.7Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8847Milwaukee Cyber Cheese

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 17.72Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.8 ±11.7

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 71.66Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1675UPS (Ultimate Protection Squad)

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 47.09Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 11.81Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6166, 6643, 8847

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6166, 6643, 8847

Auto

21.7 25%

Teleop

42.3 49%

Endgame

23.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1220, 1675, 537

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1220, 1675, 537

Auto

28.1 23%

Teleop

55.7 46%

Endgame

36.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.8pts

Blue projected score130.6pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.7
Score range: 57–158
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 148.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

159.2Season APEX222.8

21.7Auto28.1

42.3Teleop55.7

23.2Endgame36.6

89Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	34
teleop	34	76
endgame	13	42
foul	0	0
total	72	152

Result

Final score

72 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 16.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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