WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.35 – 156.24

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

80 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.6 ±12.2

9425Intra Milwaukee

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 22.31Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 21.97Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 52.07Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.2 ±11.6

3596Rocket Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 17.74Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9760Cristo Rey Jesuit Trailblazers

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 47.74Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 90.76Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9425, 7900, 5148

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9425, 7900, 5148

Auto

17.6 20%

Teleop

46.8 52%

Endgame

25.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3596, 9760, 2202

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3596, 9760, 2202

Auto

23.5 16%

Teleop

75.1 50%

Endgame

52.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.4pts

Blue projected score156.2pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.9
Score range: 69–183
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 148.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.6Season APEX258.2

17.6Auto23.5

46.8Teleop75.1

25.4Endgame52.8

67Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	12
teleop	21	77
endgame	34	48
foul	0	5
total	80	142

Result

Final score

80 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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