WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.35 – 209.17

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 169.8 ±12.8

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 17.14Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8802Milwaukee United

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 36.74Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9425Intra Milwaukee

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 22.47Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.4 ±11.7

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 153.34Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 55.91Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10430Solar Chill

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -0.08Rank 36Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 537, 8802, 9425

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 537, 8802, 9425

Auto

23.4 31%

Teleop

30.4 40%

Endgame

21.7 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1714, 5148, 10430

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1714, 5148, 10430

Auto

42.9 22%

Teleop

104.1 54%

Endgame

45.7 24%

Strengths

· 1714 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.4pts

Blue projected score209.2pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -132.8
Score range: 47–238
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 162.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

169.8Season APEX316.4

23.4Auto42.9

30.4Teleop104.1

21.7Endgame45.7

63Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	38
teleop	17	97
endgame	6	27
foul	5	15
total	43	177

Result

Final score

43 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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