WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

305.75 – 120.09

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

348 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 35.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 558.6 ±9.9

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 140.67Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8531TermiKnightors

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 9.91Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 155.17Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 207.4 ±12.8

8802Milwaukee United

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 27.8Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10287Kingdom Prep RC

Season APEX 48.9Event APEX 10.57Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 81.72Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1714, 8531, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1714, 8531, 1732

Auto

68.6 23%

Teleop

159.2 54%

Endgame

68.8 23%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8802, 10287, 6381

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8802, 10287, 6381

Auto

21.9 19%

Teleop

72.3 64%

Endgame

19.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score305.8pts

Blue projected score120.1pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 185.7
Score range: 94–332
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 496 vs event baseline 147.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

558.6Season APEX207.4

68.6Auto21.9

159.2Teleop72.3

68.8Endgame19.1

68Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	26
teleop	209	69
endgame	50	33
foul	5	20
total	348	148

Result

Final score

348 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 35.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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