WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.79 – 231.15

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

222 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 89.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.3 ±12.4

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 15.98Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 91.47Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3692Rock N' Robotics

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 8.34Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476 ±9.8

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 83.63Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 75.15Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2506Saber Robotics

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 72.37Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5096, 4786, 3692

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5096, 4786, 3692

Auto

23.1 21%

Teleop

68.6 63%

Endgame

17.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7915, 2062, 2506

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7915, 2062, 2506

Auto

48.5 22%

Teleop

121.0 54%

Endgame

55.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.8pts

Blue projected score231.2pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -115.4
Score range: 90–257
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 526 vs event baseline 145.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.3Season APEX476

23.1Auto48.5

68.6Teleop121

17.2Endgame55.6

66Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	63
teleop	140	158
endgame	51	83
foul	0	0
total	222	304

Result

Final score

222 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 89.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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