WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

162.79 – 93.76

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

155 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 232.1 ±12.2

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 73.02Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7103Robo Remedy @ Manitowoc Lutheran High School

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 56.1Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 33.67Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.8 ±10.4

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 10.79Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 66.49Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 16.48Rank 29Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1220, 7103, 2830

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1220, 7103, 2830

Auto

36.7 24%

Teleop

63.4 42%

Endgame

51.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 537, 4531, 5586

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 537, 4531, 5586

Auto

17.7 21%

Teleop

41.8 50%

Endgame

24.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162.8pts

Blue projected score93.8pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69
Score range: 68–189
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 258 vs event baseline 145.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

232.1Season APEX226.8

36.7Auto17.7

63.4Teleop41.8

51.7Endgame24.2

15Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	28
teleop	56	41
endgame	45	29
foul	5	5
total	155	103

Result

Final score

155 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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