WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.67 – 65.29

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 35 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 164.6 ±13.3

10522Sun Prairie Robotics (SPR)

Season APEX 80Event APEX 15.59Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8847Milwaukee Cyber Cheese

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 13.93Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2077Laser Robotics

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 27.15Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 172.9 ±12.8

6166Thorobotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 17.44Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 39.11Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11158Laconic Logic

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 8.74Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10522, 8847, 2077

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10522, 8847, 2077

Auto

18.5 35%

Teleop

14.9 28%

Endgame

19.0 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6166, 10909, 11158

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6166, 10909, 11158

Auto

6.6 11%

Teleop

33.7 56%

Endgame

20.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56.7pts

Blue projected score65.3pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.6
Score range: 31–91
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 192 vs event baseline 146.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

164.6Season APEX172.9

18.5Auto6.6

14.9Teleop33.7

19Endgame20.2

103Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	9
teleop	49	56
endgame	20	32
foul	0	0
total	95	97

Result

Final score

95 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 35 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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