WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.29 – 194.84

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 8.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 279.6 ±12.4

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 48.15Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10430Solar Chill

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -3.47Rank 36Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 45.61Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.5 ±10.4

1675UPS (Ultimate Protection Squad)

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 51.71Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 113.22Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 29.91Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6643, 10430, 10553

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6643, 10430, 10553

Auto

31.6 35%

Teleop

40.6 46%

Endgame

17.0 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1675, 93, 8701

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1675, 93, 8701

Auto

24.8 12%

Teleop

122.7 62%

Endgame

51.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.3pts

Blue projected score194.8pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104.5
Score range: 64–221
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 276 vs event baseline 146.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

279.6Season APEX267.5

31.6Auto24.8

40.6Teleop122.7

17Endgame51.8

94Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	15
teleop	48	91
endgame	23	76
foul	0	0
total	94	182

Result

Final score

94 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 8.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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