WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

193.94 – 97.48

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

201 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 20.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 405.5 ±11.7

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 156.41Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 16.32Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3596Rocket Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 21.21Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263.3 ±11

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 20.05Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2506Saber Robotics

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 70.28Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8531TermiKnightors

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 7.15Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1732, 5096, 3596

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1732, 5096, 3596

Auto

59.8 32%

Teleop

85.7 46%

Endgame

39.8 21%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7900, 2506, 8531

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7900, 2506, 8531

Auto

12.2 13%

Teleop

53.9 58%

Endgame

26.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score193.9pts

Blue projected score97.5pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.5
Score range: 71–220
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 332 vs event baseline 146.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

405.5Season APEX263.3

59.8Auto12.2

85.7Teleop53.9

39.8Endgame26.9

79Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	12
teleop	119	76
endgame	42	33
foul	0	10
total	201	131

Result

Final score

201 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 20.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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