WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.77 – 198.13

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

129 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 178.8 ±11.6

9760Cristo Rey Jesuit Trailblazers

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 48.8Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7103Robo Remedy @ Manitowoc Lutheran High School

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 56.17Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 10.8Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.3 ±11.2

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 85.09Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8802Milwaukee United

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 24.11Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 88.93Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9760, 7103, 537

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9760, 7103, 537

Auto

22.6 21%

Teleop

57.6 53%

Endgame

27.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4786, 8802, 2202

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4786, 8802, 2202

Auto

31.3 16%

Teleop

108.3 55%

Endgame

57.8 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.8pts

Blue projected score198.1pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -82.4
Score range: 90–224
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 392 vs event baseline 145.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

178.8Season APEX342.3

22.6Auto31.3

57.6Teleop108.3

27.6Endgame57.8

101Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	57
teleop	58	145
endgame	39	56
foul	0	5
total	129	263

Result

Final score

129 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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