WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

149.36 – 134.75

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

255 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 86.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.9 ±11.2

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 70.9Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10522Sun Prairie Robotics (SPR)

Season APEX 80Event APEX 5.77Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 72.69Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.1 ±13.9

10287Kingdom Prep RC

Season APEX 48.9Event APEX 20.17Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 81.47Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9425Intra Milwaukee

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 33.11Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6381, 10522, 7915

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6381, 10522, 7915

Auto

33.0 22%

Teleop

81.6 55%

Endgame

34.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10287, 1220, 9425

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10287, 1220, 9425

Auto

21.6 17%

Teleop

70.5 55%

Endgame

35.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score149.4pts

Blue projected score134.8pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.6
Score range: 109–175
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 323 vs event baseline 144.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.9Season APEX212.1

33Auto21.6

81.6Teleop70.5

34.4Endgame35.8

63Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	25
teleop	132	27
endgame	49	16
foul	35	0
total	255	68

Result

Final score

255 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 86.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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