WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.1 – 190.54

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 8.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 145.4 ±12.2

2077Laser Robotics

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 28.66Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10430Solar Chill

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -4.11Rank 36Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 17.55Rank 29Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.6 ±11.7

11158Laconic Logic

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 9.3Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 114.14Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 67.1Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2077, 10430, 5586

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2077, 10430, 5586

Auto

12.2 33%

Teleop

8.1 22%

Endgame

16.8 45%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11158, 93, 4531

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11158, 93, 4531

Auto

24.7 13%

Teleop

114.3 61%

Endgame

47.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score42.1pts

Blue projected score190.5pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -148.4
Score range: 16–217
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 145.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

145.4Season APEX271.6

12.2Auto24.7

8.1Teleop114.3

16.8Endgame47.2

78Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	16
teleop	16	126
endgame	18	53
foul	5	0
total	54	195

Result

Final score

54 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 8.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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