WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.07 – 124.09

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

153 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 62.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186 ±11.7

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 32.94Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8847Milwaukee Cyber Cheese

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 5.23Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1675UPS (Ultimate Protection Squad)

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 47.9Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.4 ±12.2

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 68.33Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 51.84Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3692Rock N' Robotics

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 3.92Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10909, 8847, 1675

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10909, 8847, 1675

Auto

23.3 31%

Teleop

41.0 54%

Endgame

11.8 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2062, 5148, 3692

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2062, 5148, 3692

Auto

38.9 36%

Teleop

41.7 39%

Endgame

27.4 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.1pts

Blue projected score124.1pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38
Score range: 60–150
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 144.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186Season APEX233.4

23.3Auto38.9

41Teleop41.7

11.8Endgame27.4

99Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	42
teleop	87	105
endgame	48	35
foul	0	0
total	153	182

Result

Final score

153 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 62.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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