WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

241.25 – 128.18

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

143 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 453.8 ±10.7

6166Thorobotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 27.04Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 57.33Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 156.88Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.5 ±11.7

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 54.63Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 39.6Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 33.95Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6166, 10553, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6166, 10553, 1714

Auto

40.2 17%

Teleop

127.7 53%

Endgame

72.0 30%

Strengths

· 1714 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6643, 2830, 8701

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6643, 2830, 8701

Auto

29.0 23%

Teleop

64.0 50%

Endgame

34.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.31 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score241.3pts

Blue projected score128.2pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 113.1
Score range: 102–267
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 145.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

453.8Season APEX213.5

40.2Auto29

127.7Teleop64

72Endgame34.7

90Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	26
teleop	82	36
endgame	45	36
foul	0	0
total	143	98

Result

Final score

143 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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