WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

119.79 – 239.65

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

121 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.1 ±11.7

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 86.37Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 14.64Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 18.78Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.2 ±11.7

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 165.83Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7103Robo Remedy @ Manitowoc Lutheran High School

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 64.7Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10522Sun Prairie Robotics (SPR)

Season APEX 80Event APEX 9.12Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2202, 537, 5096

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2202, 537, 5096

Auto

21.6 20%

Teleop

53.5 49%

Endgame

34.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1732, 7103, 10522

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1732, 7103, 10522

Auto

66.3 29%

Teleop

120.5 52%

Endgame

45.5 20%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score119.8pts

Blue projected score239.7pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -119.9
Score range: 94–266
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 310 vs event baseline 145.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.1Season APEX427.2

21.6Auto66.3

53.5Teleop120.5

34.8Endgame45.5

137Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	70
teleop	63	70
endgame	34	49
foul	0	0
total	121	189

Result

Final score

121 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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