WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.38 – 80.83

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

156 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 13.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225 ±11

1675UPS (Ultimate Protection Squad)

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 47.44Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2077Laser Robotics

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 24.77Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 65.17Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.9 ±11.7

10430Solar Chill

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -7.25Rank 36Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 20.73Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 67.35Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1675, 2077, 6381

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1675, 2077, 6381

Auto

16.5 13%

Teleop

75.4 58%

Endgame

38.5 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10430, 7900, 2062

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10430, 7900, 2062

Auto

32.9 39%

Teleop

20.5 24%

Endgame

31.4 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score137.4pts

Blue projected score80.8pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.6
Score range: 55–163
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 245 vs event baseline 146.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225Season APEX236.9

16.5Auto32.9

75.4Teleop20.5

38.5Endgame31.4

51Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	25
teleop	85	34
endgame	31	25
foul	10	5
total	156	89

Result

Final score

156 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 13.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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