WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

124.5 – 147.49

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 13.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.2 ±12.8

2506Saber Robotics

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 69.92Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6166Thorobotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 27.12Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9425Intra Milwaukee

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 27.46Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361 ±9.8

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 61.88Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 30.44Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 55.17Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2506, 6166, 9425

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2506, 6166, 9425

Auto

24.5 19%

Teleop

73.1 57%

Endgame

31.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4531, 8701, 10553

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4531, 8701, 10553

Auto

29.8 21%

Teleop

83.0 58%

Endgame

29.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score124.5pts

Blue projected score147.5pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23
Score range: 99–173
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 294 vs event baseline 146.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.2Season APEX361

24.5Auto29.8

73.1Teleop83

31.5Endgame29.7

47Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	37
teleop	57	70
endgame	51	65
foul	0	0
total	122	172

Result

Final score

122 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 13.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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