WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.95 – 70.66

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

281 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 49.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 458.2 ±9.3

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 78.35Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 6.98Rank 29Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 152.62Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 177.5 ±12.8

3692Rock N' Robotics

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX -0.15Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 44.06Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 26.75Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4786, 5586, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

238 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4786, 5586, 1714

Auto

36.7 16%

Teleop

140.2 60%

Endgame

58.3 25%

Strengths

· 1714 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3692, 6643, 10909

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3692, 6643, 10909

Auto

14.2 27%

Teleop

30.3 57%

Endgame

8.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score238pts

Blue projected score70.7pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 167.3
Score range: 45–264
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 408 vs event baseline 145.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

458.2Season APEX177.5

36.7Auto14.2

140.2Teleop30.3

58.3Endgame8.8

43Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	22
teleop	147	65
endgame	100	25
foul	15	15
total	281	127

Result

Final score

281 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 49.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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