WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.61 – 54.51

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

153 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 8.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233.8 ±12.7

3596Rocket Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 25.98Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 52.72Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 81.91Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 159.3 ±12.8

8847Milwaukee Cyber Cheese

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 1.82Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 35.75Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10287Kingdom Prep RC

Season APEX 48.9Event APEX 16.94Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3596, 5148, 1220

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3596, 5148, 1220

Auto

27.1 18%

Teleop

75.6 51%

Endgame

46.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8847, 2830, 10287

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8847, 2830, 10287

Auto

24.6 47%

Teleop

16.4 31%

Endgame

11.5 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.17 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score160.6pts

Blue projected score54.5pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 106.1
Score range: 29–187
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 216 vs event baseline 146.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233.8Season APEX159.3

27.1Auto24.6

75.6Teleop16.4

46.4Endgame11.5

30Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	21
teleop	40	20
endgame	37	17
foul	45	5
total	153	63

Result

Final score

153 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 8.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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