WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.45 – 107.46

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

285 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289 ±11

7103Robo Remedy @ Manitowoc Lutheran High School

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 61.59Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 58.35Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 117.51Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.4 ±11

2077Laser Robotics

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 26.07Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 68.18Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 13.21Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7103, 6381, 93

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7103, 6381, 93

Auto

22.8 10%

Teleop

143.9 61%

Endgame

69.2 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2077, 2062, 537

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2077, 2062, 537

Auto

24.7 28%

Teleop

18.6 21%

Endgame

45.0 51%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score237.5pts

Blue projected score107.5pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 130
Score range: 81–263
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 394 vs event baseline 144.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289Season APEX219.4

22.8Auto24.7

143.9Teleop18.6

69.2Endgame45

59Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	28
teleop	182	58
endgame	63	23
foul	10	0
total	285	109

Result

Final score

285 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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