WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.89 – 149.4

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

77 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 27.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 177.6 ±12.8

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 34.75Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6166Thorobotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 30.73Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8802Milwaukee United

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 31.41Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.8 ±11.2

9425Intra Milwaukee

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 27.6Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 77.57Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1675UPS (Ultimate Protection Squad)

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 44.23Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8701, 6166, 8802

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8701, 6166, 8802

Auto

19.0 18%

Teleop

62.8 58%

Endgame

25.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9425, 7915, 1675

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9425, 7915, 1675

Auto

31.8 21%

Teleop

90.1 58%

Endgame

32.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.9pts

Blue projected score149.4pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.5
Score range: 71–175
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 262 vs event baseline 145.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

177.6Season APEX370.8

19Auto31.8

62.8Teleop90.1

25.7Endgame32.6

61Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	45
teleop	34	104
endgame	22	36
foul	0	0
total	77	185

Result

Final score

77 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 27.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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