WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.07 – 146.28

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

130 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 15.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226.9 ±12.2

8531TermiKnightors

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 21.42Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 65.44Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 46.21Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.8 ±11.7

3692Rock N' Robotics

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX -3.2Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 81.55Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2506Saber Robotics

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 67.93Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8531, 4531, 6643

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8531, 4531, 6643

Auto

27.6 22%

Teleop

72.5 58%

Endgame

25.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3692, 2202, 2506

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3692, 2202, 2506

Auto

23.8 18%

Teleop

72.6 53%

Endgame

39.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score133.1pts

Blue projected score146.3pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.2
Score range: 107–172
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 304 vs event baseline 144.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226.9Season APEX289.8

27.6Auto23.8

72.5Teleop72.6

25.1Endgame39.6

63Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	25
teleop	64	84
endgame	19	55
foul	15	10
total	130	174

Result

Final score

130 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 15.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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