WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

185.46 – 152.75

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

143 – 165

Prediction missed · off by 27.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.3 ±11.7

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 110.11Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10287Kingdom Prep RC

Season APEX 48.9Event APEX 15.78Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7103Robo Remedy @ Manitowoc Lutheran High School

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 59.57Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 395.1 ±9.8

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 40.93Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 82.96Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 28.86Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4786, 10287, 7103

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4786, 10287, 7103

Auto

36.8 20%

Teleop

106.7 58%

Endgame

40.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10553, 2202, 7900

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10553, 2202, 7900

Auto

31.5 22%

Teleop

67.6 46%

Endgame

46.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score185.5pts

Blue projected score152.8pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.7
Score range: 124–214
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 308 vs event baseline 162.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.3Season APEX395.1

36.8Auto31.5

106.7Teleop67.6

40.3Endgame46.6

84Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	21
teleop	91	82
endgame	19	62
foul	5	0
total	143	165

Result

Final score

143 – 165

Prediction missed · off by 27.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.