WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

214.7 – 161.01

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

98 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 87.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 362.6 ±12.4

11158Laconic Logic

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 25.94Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 181.66Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10430Solar Chill

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 7.1Rank 36Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 301 ±10.5

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 42.37Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3596Rocket Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 34Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 84.64Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11158, 1732, 10430

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11158, 1732, 10430

Auto

60.3 28%

Teleop

109.5 52%

Endgame

42.2 20%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2830, 3596, 4786

/ 100 compat

Projected

161 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2830, 3596, 4786

Auto

29.8 19%

Teleop

81.9 53%

Endgame

43.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score214.7pts

Blue projected score161pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.7
Score range: 135–241
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 146.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

362.6Season APEX301

60.3Auto29.8

109.5Teleop81.9

42.2Endgame43.5

90Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	34
teleop	22	51
endgame	4	18
foul	5	0
total	98	103

Result

Final score

98 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 87.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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