WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

131.06 – 181.97

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 13 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.4 ±11.7

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 51.39Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 59.25Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10287Kingdom Prep RC

Season APEX 48.9Event APEX 20.42Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369.9 ±11.2

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 24.54Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 149.36Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10522Sun Prairie Robotics (SPR)

Season APEX 80Event APEX 8.07Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5148, 10553, 10287

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5148, 10553, 10287

Auto

28.2 22%

Teleop

74.5 58%

Endgame

26.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10909, 1714, 10522

/ 100 compat

Projected

182 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10909, 1714, 10522

Auto

35.0 22%

Teleop

93.3 58%

Endgame

32.4 20%

Strengths

· 1714 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131.1pts

Blue projected score182pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.9
Score range: 105–208
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 315 vs event baseline 145.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.4Season APEX369.9

28.2Auto35

74.5Teleop93.3

26.5Endgame32.4

87Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	19
teleop	67	110
endgame	12	62
foul	10	5
total	119	196

Result

Final score

119 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 13 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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