WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.71 – 103.86

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

88 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 5.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.7 ±11

9760Cristo Rey Jesuit Trailblazers

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 62.39Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 11.39Rank 29Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 17.93Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 193.5 ±13.9

8847Milwaukee Cyber Cheese

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 3.53Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 19.44Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 80.89Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9760, 5586, 7900

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9760, 5586, 7900

Auto

5.7 6%

Teleop

48.7 52%

Endgame

39.3 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8847, 5096, 1220

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8847, 5096, 1220

Auto

29.4 30%

Teleop

31.3 32%

Endgame

38.0 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.7pts

Blue projected score103.9pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.2
Score range: 65–131
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 147.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.7Season APEX193.5

5.7Auto29.4

48.7Teleop31.3

39.3Endgame38

111Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	20
teleop	46	53
endgame	29	19
foul	0	5
total	88	97

Result

Final score

88 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 5.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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