WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.16 – 38.24

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 79.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.8 ±11.7

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 71.21Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1675UPS (Ultimate Protection Squad)

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 52.29Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3692Rock N' Robotics

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 3.66Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.6 ±11

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 38.4Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX -3.28Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8531TermiKnightors

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 3.12Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4531, 1675, 3692

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4531, 1675, 3692

Auto

22.6 19%

Teleop

77.9 66%

Endgame

17.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6381, 537, 8531

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6381, 537, 8531

Auto

8.6 32%

Teleop

7.6 28%

Endgame

11.1 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127.2pts

Blue projected score38.2pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.9
Score range: 11–154
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 148.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.8Season APEX214.6

22.6Auto8.6

77.9Teleop7.6

17.1Endgame11.1

31Consistency139

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	23
teleop	13	64
endgame	11	35
foul	15	15
total	67	137

Result

Final score

67 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 79.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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