WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

306.15 – 137.47

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

278 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 577.8 ±9.3

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 182.73Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 77.28Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 46.14Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202 ±13.3

9425Intra Milwaukee

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 35.24Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 43.22Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7103Robo Remedy @ Manitowoc Lutheran High School

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 59.01Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1732, 7915, 2830

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1732, 7915, 2830

Auto

64.6 22%

Teleop

170.8 57%

Endgame

63.1 21%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9425, 6643, 7103

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9425, 6643, 7103

Auto

28.5 22%

Teleop

73.8 56%

Endgame

29.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score306.2pts

Blue projected score137.5pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 168.7
Score range: 111–332
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 404 vs event baseline 147.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

577.8Season APEX202

64.6Auto28.5

170.8Teleop73.8

63.1Endgame29.3

96Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	26
teleop	106	76
endgame	67	24
foul	5	0
total	278	126

Result

Final score

278 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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