WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.65 – 196.64

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

153 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.8 ±12.2

2077Laser Robotics

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 9.67Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11158Laconic Logic

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 17.86Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2506Saber Robotics

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 56.12Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346 ±11.2

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 143.84Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 39.2Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10287Kingdom Prep RC

Season APEX 48.9Event APEX 13.6Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2077, 11158, 2506

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2077, 11158, 2506

Auto

9.6 12%

Teleop

39.4 48%

Endgame

32.8 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1714, 8701, 10287

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1714, 8701, 10287

Auto

38.0 20%

Teleop

105.4 55%

Endgame

47.5 25%

Strengths

· 1714 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.7pts

Blue projected score196.6pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -113
Score range: 58–223
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 378 vs event baseline 145.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.8Season APEX346

9.6Auto38

39.4Teleop105.4

32.8Endgame47.5

89Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	23
teleop	87	154
endgame	42	43
foul	10	5
total	153	225

Result

Final score

153 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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