WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.3 – 200.1

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

64 – 48

Prediction missed · off by 82.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216 ±12.8

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 14.09Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8802Milwaukee United

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 29.24Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10522Sun Prairie Robotics (SPR)

Season APEX 80Event APEX 6.97Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232 ±11.7

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 142.53Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8847Milwaukee Cyber Cheese

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 30.85Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 26.72Rank 29Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7900, 8802, 10522

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7900, 8802, 10522

Auto

14.1 25%

Teleop

42.8 77%

Endgame

-1.1 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 93, 8847, 5586

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 93, 8847, 5586

Auto

26.3 13%

Teleop

113.1 55%

Endgame

66.3 32%

Strengths

· 93 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50.3pts

Blue projected score200.1pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -149.8
Score range: 23–227
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 112 vs event baseline 148.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216Season APEX232

14.1Auto26.3

42.8Teleop113.1

-1.1Endgame66.3

134Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	14
teleop	16	19
endgame	35	15
foul	0	0
total	64	48

Result

Final score

64 – 48

Prediction missed · off by 82.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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