WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

167.14 – 136.87

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

159 – 181

Prediction missed · off by 26.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.6 ±12.8

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 78.69Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 78.16Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10430Solar Chill

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 10.29Rank 36Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378.5 ±10.5

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 63.51Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 55.37Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3596Rocket Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 17.99Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2202, 1220, 10430

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2202, 1220, 10430

Auto

37.0 23%

Teleop

64.9 40%

Endgame

62.0 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2062, 10553, 3596

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2062, 10553, 3596

Auto

29.3 22%

Teleop

43.0 33%

Endgame

59.2 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score167.1pts

Blue projected score136.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.3
Score range: 110–194
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 147.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.6Season APEX378.5

37Auto29.3

64.9Teleop43

62Endgame59.2

35Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	42
teleop	68	93
endgame	58	46
foul	5	0
total	159	181

Result

Final score

159 – 181

Prediction missed · off by 26.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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