WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.89 – 164.51

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 5.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 166 ±13.3

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 16.89Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6166Thorobotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 34.58Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9760Cristo Rey Jesuit Trailblazers

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 59.42Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.5 ±10.5

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 50.21Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 83.48Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 30.82Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5096, 6166, 9760

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5096, 6166, 9760

Auto

32.9 28%

Teleop

49.9 43%

Endgame

32.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5148, 4786, 10909

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5148, 4786, 10909

Auto

24.3 17%

Teleop

96.2 66%

Endgame

24.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.9pts

Blue projected score164.5pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.6
Score range: 84–192
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 286 vs event baseline 148.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

166Season APEX299.5

32.9Auto24.3

49.9Teleop96.2

32.9Endgame24.5

95Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	33
teleop	69	92
endgame	42	24
foul	0	15
total	122	164

Result

Final score

122 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 5.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.