WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.08 – 246.34

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

161 – 312

Prediction correct · off by 78.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332 ±12.4

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 57.94Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10287Kingdom Prep RC

Season APEX 48.9Event APEX 3.84Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11158Laconic Logic

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 8.3Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478 ±9.8

2506Saber Robotics

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 35.84Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 169.22Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1675UPS (Ultimate Protection Squad)

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 41.28Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7915, 10287, 11158

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7915, 10287, 11158

Auto

31.4 41%

Teleop

40.3 52%

Endgame

5.7 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2506, 1732, 1675

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2506, 1732, 1675

Auto

64.0 27%

Teleop

132.8 56%

Endgame

39.6 17%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.1pts

Blue projected score246.3pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -176.3
Score range: 44–272
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 473 vs event baseline 145.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332Season APEX478

31.4Auto64

40.3Teleop132.8

5.7Endgame39.6

127Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	56
teleop	112	188
endgame	40	68
foul	0	0
total	161	312

Result

Final score

161 – 312

Prediction correct · off by 78.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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