WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

125.65 – 116.3

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

122 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 12 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.4 ±12.8

11158Laconic Logic

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 6.96Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 68.06Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 50.63Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.8 ±12.8

10522Sun Prairie Robotics (SPR)

Season APEX 80Event APEX 20.16Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 29.69Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 66.45Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11158, 2062, 6643

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11158, 2062, 6643

Auto

29.6 24%

Teleop

62.6 51%

Endgame

31.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10522, 5096, 4531

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10522, 5096, 4531

Auto

25.1 22%

Teleop

56.2 50%

Endgame

31.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score125.7pts

Blue projected score116.3pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.4
Score range: 87–155
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 162.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.4Season APEX236.8

29.6Auto25.1

62.6Teleop56.2

31.7Endgame31.5

74Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	34
teleop	47	37
endgame	42	25
foul	0	0
total	122	96

Result

Final score

122 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 12 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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