WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

117.99 – 100.65

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 21.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254 ±10.4

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 27.4Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 17.07Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 73.52Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 163.6 ±13.3

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 51.64Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2077Laser Robotics

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 18.08Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8802Milwaukee United

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 30.93Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2830, 7900, 4531

/ 100 compat

Projected

118 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2830, 7900, 4531

Auto

16.7 15%

Teleop

51.5 47%

Endgame

41.7 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6643, 2077, 8802

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6643, 2077, 8802

Auto

24.1 27%

Teleop

37.3 42%

Endgame

27.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118pts

Blue projected score100.7pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.3
Score range: 75–144
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 145.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254Season APEX163.6

16.7Auto24.1

51.5Teleop37.3

41.7Endgame27.9

39Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	12
teleop	86	53
endgame	39	22
foul	5	0
total	148	87

Result

Final score

148 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 21.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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