WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

123.01 – 86.15

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

117 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261.1 ±11

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 28.81Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8531TermiKnightors

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 11.59Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 82.61Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 135.9 ±13.3

8847Milwaukee Cyber Cheese

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 32.89Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10430Solar Chill

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 6.41Rank 36Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7103Robo Remedy @ Manitowoc Lutheran High School

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 46.85Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8701, 8531, 2202

/ 100 compat

Projected

123 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8701, 8531, 2202

Auto

20.2 17%

Teleop

63.2 52%

Endgame

38.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8847, 10430, 7103

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8847, 10430, 7103

Auto

32.3 44%

Teleop

21.5 29%

Endgame

19.1 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score123pts

Blue projected score86.2pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.9
Score range: 59–150
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 149.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261.1Season APEX135.9

20.2Auto32.3

63.2Teleop21.5

38.6Endgame19.1

167Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	31
teleop	52	48
endgame	40	26
foul	0	0
total	117	105

Result

Final score

117 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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