WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

132.72 – 152.02

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

204 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 83.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235.4 ±11.6

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 34.82Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9760Cristo Rey Jesuit Trailblazers

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 54.26Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 43.64Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 308.3 ±12.4

6166Thorobotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 24.33Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 59.75Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 67.94Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5148, 9760, 6381

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5148, 9760, 6381

Auto

16.6 13%

Teleop

77.9 59%

Endgame

37.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6166, 1220, 4786

/ 100 compat

Projected

152 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6166, 1220, 4786

Auto

34.5 22%

Teleop

73.2 48%

Endgame

46.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score132.7pts

Blue projected score152pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.3
Score range: 107–178
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 451 vs event baseline 146.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235.4Season APEX308.3

16.6Auto34.5

77.9Teleop73.2

37.5Endgame46.4

45Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	32
teleop	98	145
endgame	70	70
foul	5	0
total	204	247

Result

Final score

204 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 83.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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