WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.2 – 277.05

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

148 – 359

Prediction correct · off by 77.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 250 ±11.7

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 54.92Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 15.43Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 3.85Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.5 ±11.2

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 131.84Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 124.84Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9425Intra Milwaukee

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 20.37Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2062, 10909, 5096

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2062, 10909, 5096

Auto

30.2 45%

Teleop

9.3 14%

Endgame

27.9 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1714, 93, 9425

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1714, 93, 9425

Auto

35.6 13%

Teleop

155.4 56%

Endgame

84.2 31%

Strengths

· 1714 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.2pts

Blue projected score277.1pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -202.9
Score range: 49–302
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 507 vs event baseline 141.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

250Season APEX403.5

30.2Auto35.6

9.3Teleop155.4

27.9Endgame84.2

140Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	42
teleop	75	231
endgame	37	86
foul	15	0
total	148	359

Result

Final score

148 – 359

Prediction correct · off by 77.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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