WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103.64 – 88.72

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 76.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201.6 ±11.7

8847Milwaukee Cyber Cheese

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 48.73Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 35.4Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 19.51Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.4 ±11.7

2506Saber Robotics

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 19.05Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 56.63Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8802Milwaukee United

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 13.04Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8847, 8701, 7900

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8847, 8701, 7900

Auto

22.9 22%

Teleop

41.0 39%

Endgame

41.7 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2506, 4531, 8802

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2506, 4531, 8802

Auto

22.1 28%

Teleop

53.5 68%

Endgame

3.4 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.6pts

Blue projected score88.7pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.9
Score range: 63–130
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 145.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201.6Season APEX275.4

22.9Auto22.1

41Teleop53.5

41.7Endgame3.4

133Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	29
teleop	28	128
endgame	22	48
foul	0	0
total	67	205

Result

Final score

67 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 76.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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