WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

265.58 – 85.3

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

308 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 68.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 416.7 ±11.7

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 49.58Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 39.65Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 176.35Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.2 ±11.7

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 44.58Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9760Cristo Rey Jesuit Trailblazers

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 39.46Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10430Solar Chill

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 1.26Rank 36Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6643, 5148, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6643, 5148, 1732

Auto

55.7 22%

Teleop

161.9 63%

Endgame

38.9 15%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7915, 9760, 10430

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7915, 9760, 10430

Auto

27.9 32%

Teleop

55.2 63%

Endgame

4.0 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score265.6pts

Blue projected score85.3pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 180.3
Score range: 60–291
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 487 vs event baseline 140.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

416.7Season APEX317.2

55.7Auto27.9

161.9Teleop55.2

38.9Endgame4

121Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	40
teleop	146	93
endgame	61	46
foul	20	0
total	308	179

Result

Final score

308 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 68.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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