WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

161.76 – 203.31

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 74.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249.8 ±11.7

1675UPS (Ultimate Protection Squad)

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 65.67Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 71.06Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10287Kingdom Prep RC

Season APEX 48.9Event APEX 25.03Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.3 ±10.4

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 73.7Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 10.41Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 119.2Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1675, 2062, 10287

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1675, 2062, 10287

Auto

35.5 23%

Teleop

75.3 49%

Endgame

41.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2202, 2830, 93

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2202, 2830, 93

Auto

32.4 16%

Teleop

99.6 49%

Endgame

72.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score161.8pts

Blue projected score203.3pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.6
Score range: 137–228
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 379 vs event baseline 137.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249.8Season APEX312.3

35.5Auto32.4

75.3Teleop99.6

41.7Endgame72.2

95Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	27
teleop	29	154
endgame	27	99
foul	0	5
total	94	285

Result

Final score

94 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 74.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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