WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

26.84 – 139.63

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

84 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189.4 ±11

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 2.36Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 20.04Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3596Rocket Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 4.44Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.6 ±11.2

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 25.24Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 54.46Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 59.93Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 537, 10909, 3596

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 537, 10909, 3596

Auto

4.2 34%

Teleop

6.7 54%

Endgame

1.5 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5096, 6381, 10553

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5096, 6381, 10553

Auto

23.1 16%

Teleop

60.0 43%

Endgame

57.6 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.97 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score26.8pts

Blue projected score139.6pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -112.8
Score range: 0–167
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 193 vs event baseline 147.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189.4Season APEX345.6

4.2Auto23.1

6.7Teleop60

1.5Endgame57.6

156Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	29
teleop	20	57
endgame	14	18
foul	40	5
total	84	109

Result

Final score

84 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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