WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

141.63 – 67.48

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 60.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.6 ±12.4

11158Laconic Logic

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 8.89Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3692Rock N' Robotics

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 21.04Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 111.7Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190.8 ±12.2

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 31.23Rank 29Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7103Robo Remedy @ Manitowoc Lutheran High School

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 29.72Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6166Thorobotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 6.53Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11158, 3692, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11158, 3692, 1714

Auto

33.1 26%

Teleop

37.5 30%

Endgame

54.6 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5586, 7103, 6166

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5586, 7103, 6166

Auto

17.9 28%

Teleop

39.5 62%

Endgame

6.8 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.6pts

Blue projected score67.5pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.1
Score range: 42–167
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 331 vs event baseline 136.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.6Season APEX190.8

33.1Auto17.9

37.5Teleop39.5

54.6Endgame6.8

131Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	28
teleop	120	64
endgame	31	47
foul	5	0
total	192	139

Result

Final score

192 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 60.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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