WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

143.52 – 202

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 86.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233.7 ±13.3

8531TermiKnightors

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 20.86Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10522Sun Prairie Robotics (SPR)

Season APEX 80Event APEX 17.97Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 104.69Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272.5 ±11.7

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 95.35Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9425Intra Milwaukee

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 48.05Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2077Laser Robotics

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 58.6Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8531, 10522, 1220

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8531, 10522, 1220

Auto

29.4 22%

Teleop

71.8 54%

Endgame

33.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4786, 9425, 2077

/ 100 compat

Projected

202 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4786, 9425, 2077

Auto

36.7 19%

Teleop

109.6 57%

Endgame

45.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.5pts

Blue projected score202pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.5
Score range: 119–227
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 172 vs event baseline 139.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233.7Season APEX272.5

29.4Auto36.7

71.8Teleop109.6

33Endgame45.6

165Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	16
teleop	39	34
endgame	12	44
foul	0	5
total	73	99

Result

Final score

73 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 86.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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