WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.9 – 58.81

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

211 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 43.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.3 ±11.7

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 99.06Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2506Saber Robotics

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 50.58Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 33.26Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.5 ±13.3

8802Milwaukee United

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX -5.3Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8847Milwaukee Cyber Cheese

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 30.74Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 33.37Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 93, 2506, 6643

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 93, 2506, 6643

Auto

32.5 17%

Teleop

97.0 52%

Endgame

56.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8802, 8847, 5148

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8802, 8847, 5148

Auto

24.2 52%

Teleop

22.6 48%

Endgame

0.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.33 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score182.9pts

Blue projected score58.8pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 124.1
Score range: 34–208
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 137.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.3Season APEX161.5

32.5Auto24.2

97Teleop22.6

56.3Endgame0.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	32
teleop	148	64
endgame	42	22
foul	0	0
total	211	118

Result

Final score

211 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 43.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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