WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.69 – 85.08

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 154.7 ±11.7

10430Solar Chill

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 22.52Rank 36Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 2.18Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 23.99Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.4 ±12.8

10287Kingdom Prep RC

Season APEX 48.9Event APEX 31.39Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 33.11Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 20.58Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10430, 537, 8701

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10430, 537, 8701

Auto

16.9 38%

Teleop

26.2 59%

Endgame

1.2 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10287, 7900, 5096

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10287, 7900, 5096

Auto

23.2 23%

Teleop

37.6 38%

Endgame

38.9 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score48.7pts

Blue projected score85.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.4
Score range: 23–111
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 109 vs event baseline 142.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

154.7Season APEX188.4

16.9Auto23.2

26.2Teleop37.6

1.2Endgame38.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	16
teleop	11	29
endgame	11	19
foul	0	0
total	45	64

Result

Final score

45 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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