WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.08 – 130.64

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

180 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 73.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.8 ±9.8

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 25.15Rank 29Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 60.03Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 30.9Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 225.2 ±12.2

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 60.66Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3596Rocket Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 38.6Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6166Thorobotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 31.38Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5586, 2202, 7915

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5586, 2202, 7915

Auto

24.0 21%

Teleop

57.3 49%

Endgame

35.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6381, 3596, 6166

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6381, 3596, 6166

Auto

17.1 12%

Teleop

78.1 55%

Endgame

47.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.1pts

Blue projected score130.6pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.6
Score range: 90–157
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 144.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430.8Season APEX225.2

24Auto17.1

57.3Teleop78.1

35.1Endgame47.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	7
teleop	103	24
endgame	46	16
foul	0	0
total	180	47

Result

Final score

180 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 73.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.